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Natural population growth by country. World population. Natural increase and types of population reproduction. Examples of problem solving

According to the data for 2000, the population of our planet is 6055 million people. The world's population has increased at the fastest rate in the last two centuries. Such a sharp jump in population is called the "population explosion".

Now, more than 9/10 of the increase is accounted for, first of all, and, and on the European continent in recent years there has been a decrease in the absolute population.

Average life expectancy is different for men and women. Globally, women live 3 years longer than men. In many economically developed countries, the difference in life expectancy is 6-7 years in favor of women, reaching a maximum of 12 years in Russia (61 and 73 years). The main reason is the greater resilience of the female body, as well as the wider distribution of bad habits among men - alcoholism and smoking, more frequent accidents at work and at home, murders and suicides. In most developing countries, the situation is largely similar. Although among them there are those where the average life path women are shorter ( , ). This is closely related to the early marriages of women, frequent childbirth, hard work.

Birth, death, natural population growth

Birth rate, mortality, natural population growth are basically biological processes. Nevertheless, the socio-economic conditions of life in society and the family have a decisive influence on them. The mortality rate is determined, first of all, by the level of well-being of people and the degree of development of public health services. The birth rate also depends on the socio-economic structure of society, the living conditions of people. But this relationship is not direct. For example, while women are more actively involved in production and public life, the terms of education of children are increasing and the costs of their upbringing are increasing, and the birth rate is decreasing. This is one of the main reasons why relatively more affluent families often have no more children, and sometimes even fewer, than less affluent ones. However, rising incomes can also serve as an incentive to increase the birth rate. It should also be taken into account that the birth rate is determined by national and religious traditions, marriageable age, the strength of family foundations, the nature of settlement, climatic features (in hot conditions, puberty of people occurs faster). Wars have a strong negative impact on the reproduction of the population.

Population growth

Types and modes of population reproduction

In accordance with the change in the totality of demographic indicators, it is customary to distinguish three main historical type population reproduction.

The first and earliest of these is the so-called archetype of population reproduction. It dominated the primitive society, which was at the stage of the appropriating economy, and is now very rare, for example, among some Indian tribes. In these peoples, the mortality rate is so high that their numbers are declining.

The second type of reproduction, "traditional" or "patriarchal", dominates the agrarian or early stages industrial society. Main distinctive features- very high birth and death rates, low life expectancy. Having many children is a tradition that contributes to the better functioning of the family in an agrarian society. High mortality is a consequence of the low standard of living of people, their hard work and poor nutrition, and the insufficient development of medicine.

The third - "modern" or "rational" type of population reproduction, is generated by the transition from an agrarian to an industrial economy. This type of reproduction is characterized by a low birth rate, close to average mortality, low and high average life expectancy. It is characteristic of economically with a higher standard of living and culture of the inhabitants. here it is closely connected with the conscious regulation of the size of families, and the high percentage of elderly people primarily affects the mortality rate.

The population of the Earth has reached its critical level. There are currently 7.5 billion people living on our relatively small planet, and new life is emerging every second. However, such a huge population is unevenly distributed on the planet. Some countries have significantly higher birth rates than others. This is influenced primarily by factors such as genetics and the environment. Take, for example, all the countries of the African continent: these countries have a higher birth rate, therefore, more and more babies are born every year. At the same time, people inhabiting Europe or North America, for example, do not carry the genes responsible for producing a large number of offspring, and as a result, these areas are not as densely populated. Today we will talk about the top ten countries that have the highest birth rate in the world. Needless to say, all of them (with the exception of one) are located in Africa. These data were obtained thanks to the latest census. Statistically, the birth rate is classified for a thousand people. According to these data, the top ten with the most large quantity children who are born annually, hit the following countries.

10. Afghanistan

The Islamic Republic of Afghanistan is located in southeast Asia. This populous state is estimated to have reached a birth rate of 38 per 1,000 population. There are currently 32 million people living in Afghanistan, but this number is expected to increase every year. The population is growing at a rate of 2.32% per year.

9. Angola

Angola is a South African state, the seventh largest in Africa. According to the latest data, the population of Angola is 24.3 million. This is one of the largest states in Africa with a significant birth rate, which is approximately 39 newborns per 1000 population. Given limited resources, such a rising birth rate could pose a threat to the country's economy.

8. Somalia

This African state is located in the Horn of Africa, and its population is more than 10.8 million people. The country is in eighth place due to the birth rate, which is 40 babies per 1,000 population. Although this part of the region has a fairly high birth rate, Somalia has a higher birth rate than most countries. Every year the natural population growth increases by 3%. Somalia is the sixth largest country with the highest birth rate in the world.

7. Malawi

This country on the African continent, like many others, boasts a high birth rate. According to the latest data, 17,377,468 people live in the country. Birth rate in recent times is almost 42 babies per thousand population. Malawi is often referred to as the "warm heart of Africa" ​​because of its hospitable population. The population of the country is completely dependent on agriculture, however, apparently, it is not developed enough to satisfy the growing demands of the population, which is constantly increasing.

6 Burundi

It is the second largest and one of the most populous states in Africa. Burundi is not only distinguished by rich, fertile soils and developing agriculture, but also has higher birth rates than most other countries. According to the latest data, more than 42 babies are born here per thousand of the population, which brought the total population to 10.3 million. Due to a lack of resources, the population in Burundi suffers from many diseases, especially AIDS, so the average population growth is comparatively less, despite a higher birth rate.

5. Burkina Faso

As you can see, this is another African country that is in the top ten with the highest birth rate. It is located in the western part of Africa and occupies a significant territory. The country is surrounded by six of Africa's most important states and has a total population of 18.3 million. The birth rate here is slightly lower than in Burundi: 41 children per 1,000 population. However, here natural resources enough to meet the needs of a growing population.

4. Zambia

Zambia is not as densely populated as most African countries, but has a high birth rate compared to the area it covers. Zambia is the 70th most populous country in the world. Its population is 15.2 million. Statistics show that the annual growth rate is about 3.3%, and the birth rate is 42 people per 1000 population. Despite the high birth rate, the country can cope with the needs of the population, because it has a large area and, as a result, more resources.

3. Uganda

Like many other countries in Africa, Uganda is a densely populated and fertile country. Given the very high growth rate, it is not surprising that this is the third largest country with the highest birth rate, not only in Africa, but throughout the world. The total population of Uganda is 39,234,256 and the birth rate is about 44 children per thousand people. The standard of living is quite low, as the government is unable to meet the needs of the entire population.

2. Mali

This country is located on the edge of the Sahara Desert in western Africa. The Republic of Mali is one of the densely populated regions of Africa. With a birth rate of 45 babies per thousand people, Mali's population has now reached 15,786,227. Most of them live in countryside. Thus, most people are unable to achieve high standards of living.

1. Niger

This country is located on the banks of the Niger River and is named after her. It is located in western Africa and covers vast territories. The birth rate here is very high and reaches 46 people per 1000 population. High birth rates and fertility rates are the main obstacles to achieving great economic success in the country, as they make it difficult to generate income in accordance with needs.


In the vast majority of European countries, the coefficient of natural increase is extremely low. On average for Western Europe it is equal to 3-5%o, and in Germany, Denmark and Austria it has a negative value, i.e. the death rate exceeds the birth rate. Russia is experiencing a deep demographic depression, where in a number of regions throughout the 1990s. the death rate is twice the birth rate. The picture is similar in most of the other countries of Eastern Europe, which were previously part of the USSR or among the countries of the "socialist camp". The demographic failure in these countries, especially in Russia, would be even deeper if there was no mechanical influx of the population (returnees), and also in the absence of separate intrastate regions with a relatively high birth rate
Over the past three decades (since the late 1960s), a number of countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America have seen a transition from slow to very rapid population growth. Medical assistance to underdeveloped countries, the fight against epidemics contributed to a decrease in mortality rates while maintaining high birth rates. The population of these countries is characterized by a young age structure and high growth rates.
According to demographers, the low level of population reproduction in developed countries indicates a certain pattern, which manifests itself in the correspondence of indicators of natural increase to the level of socio-economic development. Yes, indeed, such a pattern is confirmed by
home of the development of the demographic situation in many countries. But, at the same time, there are other examples. Thus, in Russia, the coefficient of natural population growth for the first time became negative in the late 1980s and early 1990s. - it was then that a sharp decline in the level of socio-economic development began. It is indisputable, however, that all countries strive for population stabilization, but some of them go to it from high birth rates, while others reverse direction, i.e. from extremely low birth rates.
The dynamics of fertility and mortality are associated not only with population indicators, but also with the life expectancy of people.
In general, life expectancy is increasing all over the world. So, if in 1961-1965. people lived an average of 50 years, then in 1991-1995. - 63 years; in developing countries for the same time - 46 years and 61 years. The highest rates medium duration life of the population in Iceland (78 years), Holland, Norway and Japan (77 years), Israel (76 years). In Africa, the average life expectancy for the continent is 49.7 years.
Only in India, Nigeria, Pakistan and Sri Lanka do men live longer than women. In the rest of the world, life expectancy for men is lower than for women. At the beginning of the XX century. the difference was only 2-3 years, in the 1990s. in developed countries it has reached 9 years. Experts see the reasons for the longer life of women both in biological and genetic, and in social conditions, primarily in the performance of more difficult and dangerous work by men.
In general, the life expectancy of the population depends on the level of well-being of the population, and the latter, in turn, on natural, economic and social factors. Climatic factors determine the overall complexity of living conditions and the monetary costs of the population (for clothing, food, heating, recreation and spa treatment). The dependence of well-being on natural conditions is especially great for rural residents. Economic factors (the level of development of the productive forces, the structure of the economy, tax policy, etc.) determine the level of money income, the structure of employment, and the standard of living. Social factors reflect the degree of development of the service sector, the amount of payments and benefits, the conditions and degree of taxation, the structure of retail trade, the set and cost of the "food basket".
The level of well-being of the population most fully reflects the indicator of national income per capita. In the developed world, this figure is 3.7 times higher than the global average, and 13.6 times higher than in the group of the most underdeveloped countries. Another striking difference in the level of material well-being between different sections of the population - rich and poor. This gap is especially large in some countries of the East, including Russia.

Summary of a lesson in geography. Theme “Population of the world. The growth of the world population. Population censuses".

Plastinina Yu.L., teacher of geography, MAOU "Lyceum No. 11 of Blagoveshchensk"

Tasks:

  1. educational: give the concept of "population", "census"; form an idea of ​​the main patterns of distribution of the world's population;
  2. educational: to form the ability to determine the number of countries and regions of the world from tables and maps;
  3. developing: develop skills and abilities to work with maps and text, statistical data.

Equipment: world map, tables, atlases.

Lesson progress (40 min.)

  1. Organizing moment (1 min.)
  2. Testing knowledge and skills (4 min.)

frontal survey on the topic

  1. Actualization of knowledge and skills (2 min.)

The world has long been interested in population. It was necessary to know the size of the labor force, the possibilities for the formation of an army, the collection of taxes, etc. For the first time, the population count was carried out 4 thousand years ago in the states of the East - Egypt, China, India. Later, the counting was carried out in Ancient Greece and Ancient Rome. Current accounting is constantly carried out in almost all countries of the world, with the exception of Qatar and Oman. 200 years ago, at the end of the 18th - beginning of the 19th centuries, general population censuses were conducted in the USA, England, France and the countries of Northern Europe. Now censuses cover almost the entire population of the world. Censuses are conducted in most countries of the world every 10 years, in contrast to population records, which only have the function of knowing the population. Censuses include many questions and therefore provide a more detailed demographic picture.

Learning new material (25 min.)

Until the 17th-18th centuries, the population grew slowly and, moreover, unevenly (analysis of Fig. 10 in the textbook).

What are the reasons for the small population growth before the 20th century? (Pidemics, frequent wars, food shortages, low living standards, underdeveloped medicine.)

The table gives an idea of ​​the world population and its growth rate:

As can be seen from the table, at the beginning of the 20th century there was a "population explosion". (Think about which regions of the world experienced a population explosion?)

Population has grown at different rates in different regions of the world.
Exercise: Analysis of table 2 in the textbook. Calculate population growth rates in different regions and averages in the world as a whole. Which regions are growing faster than the world average?

In the 1990s, the growth rate stabilized, but remains quite high. In the world as a whole, they amounted to about 1.5% per year, in Africa - 3%, in Overseas Asia and Latin America - 2%. High growth rates cause a number of problems:

1) Food - lack of food in some regions (mainly in those with high population growth rates). Globally, 500 million people are undernourished.

2) Land depletion - due to their irrational use.

3) Deforestation - due to deforestation for fuel and to increase new lands for arable land.

4) Pollution environment- the result of urbanization, in the form of a large number of landfills around large cities, an increase in demand for a huge material household supply.

5) The problem of lack of clean water, etc.

Countries - champions in terms of average annual population growth rates (population growth in% at the end of the 20th century).

1. Qatar - 5.8.

3. Liberia - 5.5.

4. French Guiana - 5.4.

5. Djibouti - 4.8.

6. Jordan - 4.7.

7. Sierra Leone - 4.5.

8. Eritrea - 4.2.

9. Somalia - 4.2.

10. Yemen - 4.1.

P. Afghanistan - 3.7.

12. Niger - 3.6.

13. Marshall Islands - 3.5.

14. Oman - 3.3.

15. Solomon Islands - 3.3.

Countries with the lowest growth rates:

1. Russia - 0.6

2. Latvia - 0.6

3. Ukraine - 0.9

4. Bulgaria - 1

5. Estonia - 1.1

Countries - champions in terms of population at the end of the 90s (the ten largest countries in the world account for more than half of the total world population).

1. China - 1133682560.

2. India - 846302720.

3. USA - 248709872.

4. Indonesia - 179378944.

5. Brazil - 146825472.

6. Russia - 145118904.

7. Japan - 125570248.

8. Bangladesh - 111455184.

9. Nigeria - 88514504.

10. Pakistan-84253648.
Forecast of changes in the leaders of countries by number by 2050.

1. India - 1572055000.

2. China - 1462058000.

3. USA - 397063000.

4. Pakistan - 344170000.

5 Indonesia - 311335000.

6. Nigeria - 278788000.

7. Bangladesh - 265432000

8. Brazil - 247244000.

9. Congo - 203527000.

10. Ethiopia - 186452.
Russia is expected to take 17th place, behind Mexico, the Philippines, Vietnam, Iran, Egypt, and Japan.

Countries with the smallest population in the world (thousand people in 2017):

1. Vatican - 0.8.

2. Antilla - 7.

3. Tuvalu - 10.

4. San Marino - 24.

5. Liechtenstein - 31.

6. Monaco - 32.

8. Antigua and Barbuda - 65.

9. Andorra - 66.

Natural growth of world population

Natural increase is calculated by the formula: SP = Birth rate - Mortality rate.

Students are invited to fill in the table "Natural population growth" according to the atlas maps:

After checking the quality of filling in the table, students analyze the table.

High level Natural increase is typical for countries with a low level of economy, developing countries. Countries with a high level of economic development are characterized by an average and low level of population growth.

Natural increase depends on the type of population reproduction. It is different in different countries. Although the birth rate and mortality are biological processes, they are influenced by socio-economic factors. Why?

Mortality

The mortality rate is influenced by such processes as nutrition, sanitary and hygienic working and living conditions of people, the level of development and access to health care.

Students are introduced to interesting facts on p. 73 No. 4, then they analyze the table “Death rates by countries of the world”, if the atlases have a map of mortality around the world, the table can be compiled by the students themselves, and then checked.

fertility

About 140 million people are born every year in the world. (Interesting Facts #3). Every second 3 people appear, every minute - 175, every hour - 10.4 thousand, every day - 250 thousand new earthlings. Every week a new Kharkiv or Hamburg is added on the Earth, every month - the population of such a country as Austria or Tunisia.

Fertility also depends on the level of the socio-economic structure of society and on the living conditions of people. But it would be wrong to determine the direct dependence of the birth rate on the standard of living in the country. For example, in the US, the level of natural increase is average, while in Germany it is much lower. Russia is going through an economic crisis and, consequently, the birth rate is low, while in Germany and Italy economic life is stable, but the birth rate is just as low and the natural increase is negative. As a rule, as wealth increases and the level of education increases, women are involved in economic life society, on production, the period of education of children increases, the age of marriage increases, the overall increase in the cost of a child, and the growth of urbanization also affects the decrease in the birth rate. Consequently, in developed countries, the birth rate tends to fall. In countries with economies in transition, an increase in the standard of living causes, on the contrary, an increase in the birth rate.

Students write down in a notebook the reasons that increase the birth rate and the reasons that reduce it. (Option I considers the reasons leading to an increase in the birth rate, and option II, on the contrary, to a decrease in it.)

Socio-economic reasons causing low birth rates:

1. High level of urbanization (above 75%).

2. High standard of living.

3. A high level of education and an increase in the years spent on study.

4. Increasing child support costs.

5. Changing the status of a woman, emancipation, the emergence of new values ​​in women, such as independence, a desire to make a career, etc.

6. An increase in the proportion of older people and, consequently, a decrease in the proportion of able-bodied people.

7. Consequences of wars, conflicts, terrorism.

8. Increasing the age of marriage, for example, in Sweden and Denmark the proportion of the population entering marriage at the age of 30 for the first time is close to 50%.

Socio-economic reasons causing high birth rates:

1. Low standard of living.

2. The predominance of the rural lifestyle.

3. Religious customs that encourage large families.

4. Traditions of having many children.

5. The servitude of women, early marriages.

6. The growth of the level of medicine.

7. Improvement of sanitary culture.

Then the teacher invites students to analyze the table, or just to read it. If students work with an atlas, where there is a birth rate map around the world, you can make a table yourself.

In a simplified form, all countries can be divided into countries of two types of population reproduction. According to the text, tables, graphs in the textbook, students are asked to fill in the table

Comparable Traits The first type of reproduction The second type of reproduction
1. Birth rate Short High
2. Mortality rate In countries where “nation aging” is manifested, mortality is high Mortality is high, but not in all countries, in general, mortality is relatively low due to the high proportion of children
3. Rate of natural increase Short High, right up to the population explosion
4. Which countries are common Mainly in developed countries In developing countries
5. Percentage of children Low high
6. Proportion of older people high Low
7. What is the aim of the demographic policy. To increase the birth rate For a decrease in the birth rate

Compare two age and sex pyramids in the textbook. What is the difference between the two pyramids, why do they look like this? By what parameters of the pyramid can one judge whether it belongs to one or another type of population reproduction?

Working with terms: depopulation, aging of the nation, population explosion, demographic crisis. In what type of countries do these phenomena occur? What is the reason for the appearance of these processes?

Age composition

Selected countries:

a) with a progressive type of age structure of the population - with a large proportion of children (what type of reproduction?);

b) with a stationary type - equilibrium in age;

c) with a regressive type - a large proportion of the elderly and a small proportion of children.

Information for thought. The largest proportion of the elderly in Sweden - 25%, children - in Yemen - 52%. Least of all elderly people in the UAE and Kuwait - 2%.

What problems does a country with a large proportion of children or older people experience?

Demographic policy

Demographic state policy, depending on its direction, gives certain results. Basically, its effectiveness is manifested in the change in the birth rate in the country. In countries of the first type of reproduction, demographic policy is aimed at increasing the birth rate, and in the second type, on the contrary, at a decrease.

Demographic transition theory

Task number 4. Use textbook text and other sources of information to flesh out the demographic transition pattern. Give examples of regions and countries of the world that are at different stages of this transition at the end of the 20th century. Where might the first stage of the demographic transition occur today? In which European countries there was no second stage of the demographic transition and why? (In the countries participating in the Second World War, there was almost no population explosion, or it was small, especially in Russia.)

Exercise: Using the text of the textbook and based on the knowledge gained in the lesson, fill in the table.

Lifespan

Studying the tombstones of the ancient Romans, the English scientist Magdonell came to the conclusion that they lived an average of 22 years. This is exactly the number received by the researchers of Egyptian mummies. Pharaoh Ramesses II lived for about 70 years, in his kingdom at that time there were no people who lived during the reign of the previous pharaoh, and the Egyptians believed that the pharaoh was immortal. About life in the Middle Ages, Pope Innocent III wrote that in the 12th-13th centuries, few people reached 46 years old, 60-year-old people are a big exception. In the 18th century, the 30-year milestone was reached. In the 19th century, the Belgians lived an average of 32 years, the Dutch - 34; the British - 33. Different mortality was also among different segments of the population: among the wealthy 12.6 per mille, among the workers - 27.2.

In the 70s of the 20th century, life expectancy in Sweden was 71-75 years, in Pakistan - 35 years.

To characterize life expectancy, the life expectancy indicator is used, which indicates how many years a person born in the corresponding year will live if the conditions for maintaining his health remain unchanged throughout his life.

Moscow, January 26 - “Vesti. Economy". The largest decline in population is observed in Eastern Europe, experts say. This is due to a number of factors, including the migration of the population to richer and more prosperous countries, as well as a decrease in the birth rate and an increase in mortality. The top ten countries in terms of population decline are the countries of Eastern Europe. Below we will talk about them in more detail. 1. Bulgaria

Population in 2017: 7.08 million Forecast for 2050: 5.42 million Dynamics: -23% The average annual rate of population decrease is about 0.7%. 19.6% of the country's inhabitants have higher education, 43.4% secondary, 23.1% basic, 7.8% primary, 4.8% incomplete primary, and 1.2% never attended school. 54.1% of houses in cities and 18.1% in villages have personal computers, and 51.4% and 16.4%, respectively, have access to the Internet. 2. Latvia

Population in 2017: 1.95 million Forecast for 2050: 1.52 million Dynamics: -22% the number decreased by another 2.5 thousand people. The number of inhabitants of the country continues to decrease, despite the increase in the birth rate. The largest number of departed Latvian citizens is in Ireland and Great Britain. 3. Moldova

Population in 2017: 4.05 million Forecast for 2050: 3.29 million Dynamics: -19% In the post-Soviet period, the demographic situation in Moldova is deteriorating. The main reason for this is the difficult socio-economic situation. In recent years, natural population growth has decreased, emigration of the most able-bodied and professionally trained part of the country's population has increased, and mortality has increased. 4. Ukraine

Population in 2017: 44.22 million Forecast for 2050: 36.42 million Dynamics: -18% The birth rate in Ukraine is the lowest in Europe, and the lowest birth rate is in the most urbanized regions (Zaporozhye, Donetsk, Lugansk, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk regions, the city of Kyiv). The natural decline in the population amounted to 183.0 thousand people. Natural population growth was observed only in the Transcarpathian (+1239) and Rivne (+1442) regions and the city of Kyiv (+5133 people). 5. Croatia

Population in 2017: 4.19 million Forecast for 2050: 3.46 million Dynamics: -17% More than 90% of the country's population are Croats, national minorities include Serbs, Bosniaks, Hungarians, Albanians, Italians, Slovenes, Germans, Czechs , gypsies and others. The largest national minority are Serbs (186,633 people), living mainly in Slavonia, Lika, Gorski Kotar. Some of the national minorities are concentrated in one region (Italians in Istria, Hungarians along the Hungarian border, Czechs in the area of ​​the city of Daruvar), others are scattered throughout the country (Bosniaks, Gypsies, etc.) 6. Lithuania

Population in 2017: 2.89 million Forecast for 2050: 2.41 million Dynamics: -17% Lithuania was included in the list of countries in the world disappearing fastest. The loss of the population - 28.366 (1%) was encouraged by the rapid emigration of the inhabitants, the increased mortality, the decreasing birth rate. According to various sources, about a million people have left Lithuania since gaining independence and joining the EU in 2004. Most of them went to work in Western Europe. 7. Romania

Population in 2017: 19.68 million Forecast for 2050: 16.40 million Dynamics: -17% Like other countries in the Eastern European region, Romania is experiencing a decline in population. The birth rate is 10.5 per 1000 people, the death rate is 12.0 per 1000 people. 8. Serbia

Population in 2017: 8.79 million Forecast for 2050: 7.45 million Dynamics: -15% Serbia has one of the worst population growth rates in the world, ranking 225 out of 233 countries. The total fertility rate of 1.44 children per mother is one of the lowest in the world. 9. Poland

Population in 2017: 38.17 million Forecast for 2050: 32.39 million Dynamics: -15% In recent years, the population of Poland has been gradually decreasing due to increased emigration and falling birth rates. After joining the European Union a large number of Poles emigrated to Western European countries in search of work. Polish diasporas are represented in neighboring states: Ukraine, Belarus, Lithuania, Latvia, as well as in other states. 10. Hungary

Population in 2017: 9.72 million Forecast for 2050: 8.28 million Dynamics: -15% The population of Hungary is mono-ethnic. The majority of the inhabitants are Hungarians (92.3%). Decline in the birth rate plays a significant role in the character and lifestyle of modern Hungarians, including the form of cohabitation, study time and work experience. Among 20-year-olds in Hungary, the desire to have children has dropped sharply.